Breece Hall would/should be drafted in the first round if we had a draft today. He’s an extremely talented player who had been receiving targets at a near record pace through four weeks and then, in Week 5, gets 100 receiving yards on two targets, getting tackled inside the 1-yard line both times. He easily could have had a 40-point day in fantasy. Missed it by about one yard in fact.
Breece Hall has increased his fantasy output every single week.
WK1 – 11.1 fantasy points
WK2 – 13.0 fantasy points
WK3 – 15.2 fantasy points
WK4 – 15.8 fantasy points
WK5 – 27.7 fantasy points
Already making his claim to the throne for Dynasty RB1.
👑 👑 👑
— David J. Gautieri (@GuruFantasyWrld) October 9, 2022
Laken Tomlinson, asked about Breece Hall: “You mean The Beast?”
— Zack Rosenblatt (@ZackBlatt) October 9, 2022
Throw out all the other stats in this game given the Dolphins were playing with a seventh-round rookie at QB after their first play of the game and the Jets obviously never felt pressed to throw. Raheem Mostert is clearly the bell cow there though. If you have shallow benches, drop Chase Edmonds (one touch).
Raheem Mostert’s takeover of the Dolphins’ backfield is complete ✅
69% snaps
73% attempts
57% short yardage
60% long down distance
100% two-minute
19.2 fantasy points — mid-range RB2 moving forward.
Chase Edmonds only 15% of snaps 💀
Myles Gaskin challenging Edmonds for RB2
— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) October 9, 2022
Daniel Jones looked great for the Giants, who may be the most well-coached team in the league. The talent level on offense is so bad, even with the ethereal Saquon Barkley.
Barkley could have had three TDs on Sunday but lost two goal-line opportunities due to play-calling and injury. He had two 40-plus-yard plays.
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You throw 13 passes to Randall Cobb, you deserve to lose, Aaron Rodgers.
Darius Slayton emerged as an intriguing player as a rookie and has since basically disappeared before reemerging in Week 5. You need to see the inactives before you play him though. I won a Richie James Jr. over prop this year somehow. I dodged the grim reaper there.
Dameon Pierce is a true bell cow. He even got five targets. Whenever targets plus rushes are over 30, the player is a Top 10 RB, I don’t care about the QB or the environment or anything else. This is two games in a row now. If you just hate the Texans so much that the idea of them makes you want to spit, the lowest Pierce can be is RB15.
Jeff Wilson is another bell cow. He shared with Tevin Coleman, who is worth a waiver claim. Check for Elijah Mitchell’s status though. I have no idea what happens to Wilson when Mitchell gets back. If you can cash Wilson in for second-round value right now, do it.
The Bills-Steelers was basically a junk game so it’s hard to read much out of it. Gabe Davis had six targets. That’s a 20% rate. I guess it’s okay. His efficiency and TD rate is just crazy this season. I’d feel much better about my forecast as a Top 20 WR if he had about 23% targets this year and way more catches and yards. TDs are flukey, even though I admit it seems like it’s a signature skill for Davis.
Najee Harris is on pace for 51 targets after getting 94 last year. We have to forget about this aspect of his value for now. And then what is there? He’s a RB3 for now. If you drafted him, you probably thought you were set and didn’t go for the zeroRB types. Some of this, of course, could be injury related (Lisfranc).
Yes, the story for the Chargers is Austin Ekeler. But the people who scrounge around for RBs — the RB poor — finally got some clarity for his backup role as Joshua Kelley, who has been productive all year, tallied 82 scrimmage yards and a TD compared to zero yards for Sony Michel. Just forget about Isaiah Spiller, one of the craziest cases of mass hysteria I can remember. Get Kelley on waivers, who has a playable floor given Ekeler’s snap rate.
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And I did say to sell Ekeler last week at full value and then some. His efficiency is just insane (expected points based on touches and where he’s getting touches). It can’t continue to this degree but he’ll probably be very efficient. Would I still trade him for one of the summer’s top three WRs? I would. I just bet the base rate and can’t expect a RB with this snap rate to dominate like this. But maybe he’s Jamaal Charles.
Joshua Palmer is not good. You can cut him.
Nick Chubb is basically Jim Brown as a runner. Just unreal. Brown had dynamic receiving ability too, though. Chubb’s sort of like Ekeler. I don’t think he can keep scoring TDs at this rate per carry but I think he can and will crush the average rate there. Chubb has massive TD efficiency/scoring. Ekeler has the catches boosting his scoring. I get keeping them or trading them. You basically can get, say, Justin Jefferson for the cost of Chubb’s second-round pick. No one ever went broke making money.
David Njoku may be the TE3.
Maybe the Bears are going to give Justin Fields a chance to play now. I thought he was excellent on Sunday, both passing and running.
Sadly, Khalil Herbert has no fantasy utility when David Montgomery is active.
I still can’t trust Cole Kmet.
I’m inclined to write off the Lions game as just Bill Belichick doing a number on Detroit with the intelligence provided by Matt Patricia. They were the No. 1 yardage and scoring offense going into the week.
Jakobi Meyers has elite efficiency on targets per route run and also in converting targets (seven for eight).
Rhamondre Stevenson is another zeroRB hero. He became the alpha when Damien Harris was sidelined with a bum hamstring. And he delivered as you’d expect against the NFL’s worst defense by a country mile. Plus, he was an obvious play even with Harris healthy entering the game.
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Rashaad Penny is out with a broken leg. Don’t talk about guys being injury prone when they break their legs. It’s stupid. Ken Walker basically had one carry of note but he’s a Top 15 RB now.
This continues to be a great QB environment for Geno Smith given the team has two Pro-Bowl quality receivers. Nothing in Smith’s history is relevant in light of this fact.
Here’s your sell window on Alvin Kamara. You know you wanted it last week. I know you’re hesitant to jump through it now. But you’ll get second-round value, basically cashing out at a very slight loss and having most of the season left to make it up with the rest of your roster.
Taysom Hill is breaking the game with his tight-end eligibility. We should have followed the money here. He’s paid too much not to have any role. Yes, he can be a zero in some weeks — like every TE. Hill at TE is one of the more subtle league-winning pickups.
The Tom Brady breakout turned into the Leonard Fournette breakout. Fournette is probably the least respected elite fantasy RB in the history of our game.
Marcus Mariota has game plans designed for him like he’s a rookie. It’s embarrassing.
Carson Wentz was great until the game was on the line at the 1-yard line and then oddly threw a ball almost up for grabs instead of just firing a no-doubter out of the end zone, chose not to run for a walk-in TD when the seas parted for him and then threw a pick into a crazy tight window instead of living for the fourth-down play. I would have just run two sneaks there in 19 seconds, which you easily could have managed with no timeouts. I guarantee that was what Tennessee wanted least.
Trevor Lawrence was embarrassing.
Travis Etienne may have just supplanted James Robinson. Robinson has been hit and mostly miss all year. As for their snaps:
#Jaguars Week 5 RB Usage
– Travis Etienne: 53% snaps, 10 carries, 5 targets (114 yards)
– James Robinson: 41% snaps, 10 carries, 2 targets (39 yards)
Etienne been more utilized the past two games
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) October 9, 2022
Baker Mayfield played through a leg injury but he’s just painful to watch now. He’s like the comedian who’s bombing and you root for him to get a laugh because it’s tough to watch otherwise. I guess Baker is getting laughs though. Maybe a bad metaphor by me.
Cam Akers is like nepotism at this point. Like he’s related to Sean McVay. The Rams need to find out if any other RB has juice because Akers has none. The Rams offense has nobody who scares you in reality, including Cooper Kupp (he’s scary in PPR fantasy, though).
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It’s so easy for Dallas Goedert in this Philly offense. He just needs targets like in Week 5. He’s all-time in tight end efficiency (yards per target) since the start of the 2021 season.
One more game before DeAndre Hopkins is back. Adjust your rankings now and act accordingly.
(Top photo: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports)
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